A country's population can be divided into three groups, old dependents, young dependents and economically active.
Old dependents: Anyone over the age of 65. These people are normally retired.
Young dependents: Anyone under the age of 16. These people are normally being cared for at home or are at school.
Economically active: People between the ages of 16 and 65. These people are normally working and pay taxes.
Obviously there are always exceptions. Some people stay in education until they are 21 or older, some people work until they die and some people are unemployed. However, when we are looking at overall populations, we have to go with the norm.
Ageing population: A rise in the median age of the population usually associated with an increase in the proportion of old dependents.
Ageing ratio: The proportion of people over the age of 65 compared the total population.
Dependency Ratio: This is the ration between dependents (old and young) and economically active. The dependency ratio is calculated using the following formula.
A country's dependency ratio may increase for a number of reasons including:
It would be possible to show a country's population structure on a triangular graph. For example the graph below would show old dependents on the left hand axis (15%), young dependents on the right hand axis (35%) and economically active on the bottom axis (50%).
Populations are never constant because people are always being born, always dieing and always migrating. However, some countries do have particularly young or particularly old populations. Below are examples of each as well as some of the causes, problems, solutions and benefits:
Causes of a Young Population
Problems of a Young Population
Solutions to a Young Population
Advantages of Young Population
High birth rates caused by:
lack of family planning
No education about contraception
High infant mortality
Primary based economy
No care for old dependents from government
Immigration of young dependents
Tradition and status of large families
Cost of childcare and education
Increased dependency ratio
Increased cost of child benefits paid by the government
Shortage of workers (in the short-term)
Cost of healthcare (midwives, health visitors, etc.)
Spending diverted from defence, transport, etc.
Anti-natalist policy (see below - China)
Increased immigration of economically active
Privatised education (remove cost from government)
Privatised healthcare (remove cost from government)
Reduced infant mortality rates (people then normally have less babies)
Greater care of old dependents (less children needed to care for elderly)
Immigration restrictions (quotas)
Lower death rates so less money spent on care homes/hospitals
Educated and IT literate population (many elderly people are unfamiliar with new technology)
Abundance of future workers
Strong military in the future
Large future market (young people are often interested in consumer goods)
Who cares for dependents?
OLD DEPENDANTS
YOUNG DEPENDANTS
MEDCs
Retirement homes
Public and private pensions
Personal savings
Hospitals (government and private)
Doctors surgeries
Day care centres
Home help (meals on wheels)
Families (sons and daughters)
Subsidies (free public transport and winter fuel payments)
Charities e.g. Help the Aged.
Pre and post natal care
Hospitals (midwives)
Doctors surgeries (immunizations)
Nurseries
Schools
Nannies
Families (parents, etc)
Child support (from govt.)
Orphanages
LEDCs
Families
Community (family friends)
Basic medical care
Charitable organisations
Personal savings?
Government subsidies e.g. gas in El Salvador
Families
Community
Basic medical care
Charitable organisations
Orphanages
Basic primary school?
Iran's Young Population
Nearly 60% of Iranians are under the age of 30, compared to about 40% in the US. Although this figure is high it is not as high as Iraq or Afghanistan where the figure stands at nearly 70%.
One of the reasons that Iran has a very young population, is that after the Islamic Revolution in 1979 people were encouraged to marry young and have big families. This policy was continued right through the 1980's as Iran was fighting a war with Iraq and wanted a large population (and therefore large army).
The government realised that the population was growing to big and in the 1990's promoted contraception and family planning to reduce the birth rate. However, the young population will mean that the population continues to grow because of population momentum.
Problems that the young population might cause are greater calls for political and social freedom and demands for better employment opportunities.
Japan has an ageing population because the birth rates have fallen and it has one of the world's highest life expectancy's. In fact the islands of Okinawa off Japan's south coast have the highest life expectancy and the greatest percentage of centenarians in the world.
Japan has the highest proportion of old dependents (about 23%) and the lowest proportion of young dependents (about 13%) in the world. It has a total fertility rate of only 1.25. This is well below the replacement rate of 2.1.
Even though the Japanese are working longer, it may have to look outside its borders to prevent future population decline and economic decline. Japan is traditionally a very insular country so allowing large scale immigration would involve huge social and cultural changes.
What possible solution to an ageing population is to increase the retirement age and employ elderly people. There are advantages and disadvantages to hiring elderly workers.
Advantages of Elderly Workers
Disadvantages of Elderly Workers
Workers will have a lot of experience of the workplace (wide skill base)
Elderly workers will not take maternity or paternity leave
Employers probably won't have to pay into a government pension scheme
Elderly people are often seen as more friendly and approachable making them ideal for the service sector
Elderly workers can act as mentors for newer staff
Elderly workers may be more willing to work part-time or flexitime so companies can alter staff to meet demand.
Elderly workers are often more loyal and seen as been more reliable
It might be necessary to retrain some staff in new skills e.g. ICT
Elderly workers are more likely to get sick
Employers might have to pay higher health insurance premiums
Elderly people might be unable to work in many manual (physical) jobs
Elderly workers may be less open to new ideas and new technology
Elderly workers may only want to or be able to work part-time.
Elderly workers are harder to invest in, because they could retire at any time.
Dependents (old and young) tend to be cared for very differently in rich (MEDC) and poor (LEDC) countries. The document below gives examples of some of the different ways that they are cared for.
Overpopulation, Underpopulation and Optimum Population
A country with a high dependency ratio or a declining population could be considered to be either overpopulated or underpopulated. This is because the resources of the country and the population of the country do not match. Resources of a country may include:
The number of jobs
The amount of houses
The availability of food and water
The amount of schools and hospitals
The electricity and gas supply
Overpopulation: When the population is greater than the resources available in the country e.g. Bangladesh
Underpopulation: When the population is not big enough to fully exploit the economic potential of a country e.g. Canada and Australia
Optimum Population: When the population and resources are perfectly matched. In reality this never really happens.
We will be looking at the relationship between resources and population a little bit later in the course: Patterns of resource consumption
However, it is important to remember that a country's optimum population can be constantly changing. This might be because of the discovery of new resources, or the loss of existing resources, or the discovery and use of new technology e.g. desalination.
Population Policies
Pro-natalist policy: A policy that tries to increase birth rates and total fertility rate. You can not force people to have children, so you have to offer incentives e.g. free education.
Countries may introduce a pro-natalist policy because:
They have an ageing population (increased dependency ratio)
They have a shortage of economically active (low births rates and total fertility rates)
You can not force people to have children, so pro-natalist policies normally work by offering incentives. Incentives may include:
Money
Extended maternity and paternity leave and pay (maternity leave is holiday (time off work) given to the mother after she has given birth, paternity leave is holiday given to the husband after the mother has given birth - in most countries paternity leave is very short (maybe 2 weeks and often unpaid))
Free or subsidised childcare
Free of subsidised education and healthcare
In some countries like Singapore the problem is that people are concentrating on their education and careers and getting married later and therefore have less time to have children. To overcome this problem the Singapore government is hosting speed dating nights, singles holidays, etc. to try and match make and encourage earlier marriage.
However, even with financial incentives, having a child is not something to make money from. In the UK is has been estimated that the cost of rearing of one child is 200,000 pounds. Therefore the aim of pro-natalist policies is to encourage couples who want children, but might possibly be delaying having them because they can't quite afford it.
Singapore's Pro-natalist Policy
Singapore is a developed country in SE Asia with a population of about 5 million people. For many years the Singaporean government has believed that Singapore is underpopulated and has tried to increase its population. Singapore has one of the lowest total fertility rates in the world, standing at 1.1, which is well below the replacement rate of 2.1. Already 36% of the Singapore population is made up of foreign nationals and in some sectors like industry, 80% of the workers are foreign.
To overcome worker shortages, the Singapore government has encouraged immigration, but it is also trying to increase the population through raising birth rates. The government is doing this in a number of ways. It has increased maternity leave by 50% to 12 weeks and it will cover the cost of maternity leave (the cost to the parents employers) for the first four babies. The Singapore government is also increasing child benefits paid to families. The government will pay money into a special bank account of up to nearly $1000 for six years. The Singapore government has also sponsored dating organisations to encourage people to get married earlier and start having children.
If Singapore's policies are not successful it will become increasingly dependent on foreign workers, gradually see an increase in the dependency ratio and ultimately economic decline.
Anti-natalist policy: A policy that tries to reduce birth rates. This can be done through better education on family planning and better provision of contraception or a more rigid forced policy like China's (see below).
A country may introduce an anti-natalist policy if it is:
Overpopulated (the population is higher than the resources available)
Has a young population (high birth rates and total fertility rate)
China's One Child Policy (anti-natalist policy)
China currently has the largest population in the world, standing at about 1.3 billion. China is the third largest country in the world, but only about 10% of its area is good for arable farming. Much of the west is covered in mountains and much of the north is desert.
China probably has the most famous population policy in the world. However, not everyone knows is that China actually had a pro-natalist policy after the end of World War II. During the war China was occupied by the Japanese. The Communist government never wanted this to happen again, so encouraged population growth to create a large army. This policy saw rapid population growth, but unfortunately the availability of resources was not growing at the same rate and in the early 1960's an estimated 20 million people died from famine. Because of the famine, in 1964 the government tried to promote birth control, but the birth rate still stood at 45 between 1966 and 1971. Because of the high birth rates the government promoted a new campaign 'Late, Sparse, Few'. However, the government didn't believe that this was having a significant enough effect and in 1979 introduced the one child policy.
Demographers estimated that China's optimum population was 700 million and the aim was to meet this figure by 2080. The policy was strictly enforced and there were punishments for people who did not follow the policy including fines, loss of jobs, removal of education and health rights for children and for women caught to be pregnant with a second child forced abortion and sterilisation.
At the same time as punishing offenders the government was also promoting the use of contraception and encouraging people to get married later. There are also some exceptions to the rule, families in rural areas were often allowed two children where people were needed to work on the land and ethnic groups were also allowed two children.
Successes:
The total fertility rate has from nearly 6 to about 1.7
Population growth rate has fallen from a peak of 2.61% in the late 1960's to about 0.65% today
Birth rates have fallen from highs of 45 to about 13 today.
The availability of contraception has increased
Up to 250 million births have been prevented since 1979
China's population should peak in the first half of the 2030's (however, it might be as much as 1.45 billion)
Failures:
There have been criticisms about human rights, not only over freedom of choice, but forced abortions and sterilisations.
Female infanticde has taken place, where the boys fave been favoured.
There is now a sex imbalance in China (117:100).
Many children have been abandoned for adoption.
There is an ageing population and an increased dependency ratio
There has been shortage of workers in some areas.
The so called 'little emperors' syndrome where only children are spoilt
The policy has been open to corruption. Many people have paid bribes to have extra children.
Responses to high and low fertility
Old dependents: Anyone over the age of 65. These people are normally retired.
Young dependents: Anyone under the age of 16. These people are normally being cared for at home or are at school.
Economically active: People between the ages of 16 and 65. These people are normally working and pay taxes.
Obviously there are always exceptions. Some people stay in education until they are 21 or older, some people work until they die and some people are unemployed. However, when we are looking at overall populations, we have to go with the norm.
Ageing population: A rise in the median age of the population usually associated with an increase in the proportion of old dependents.
Ageing ratio: The proportion of people over the age of 65 compared the total population.
Dependency Ratio: This is the ration between dependents (old and young) and economically active. The dependency ratio is calculated using the following formula.
A country's dependency ratio may increase for a number of reasons including:
India's demographic dividend - BBC article
It would be possible to show a country's population structure on a triangular graph. For example the graph below would show old dependents on the left hand axis (15%), young dependents on the right hand axis (35%) and economically active on the bottom axis (50%).
Causes of a Young Population
Problems of a Young Population
Solutions to a Young Population
Advantages of Young Population
Who cares for dependents?
MEDCs
Retirement homes
Public and private pensions
Personal savings
Hospitals (government and private)
Doctors surgeries
Day care centres
Home help (meals on wheels)
Families (sons and daughters)
Subsidies (free public transport and winter fuel payments)
Charities e.g. Help the Aged.
Pre and post natal care
Hospitals (midwives)
Doctors surgeries (immunizations)
Nurseries
Schools
Nannies
Families (parents, etc)
Child support (from govt.)
Orphanages
LEDCs
Families
Community (family friends)
Basic medical care
Charitable organisations
Personal savings?
Government subsidies e.g. gas in El Salvador
Families
Community
Basic medical care
Charitable organisations
Orphanages
Basic primary school?
Iran's Young Population
Nearly 60% of Iranians are under the age of 30, compared to about 40% in the US. Although this figure is high it is not as high as Iraq or Afghanistan where the figure stands at nearly 70%.
One of the reasons that Iran has a very young population, is that after the Islamic Revolution in 1979 people were encouraged to marry young and have big families. This policy was continued right through the 1980's as Iran was fighting a war with Iraq and wanted a large population (and therefore large army).
The government realised that the population was growing to big and in the 1990's promoted contraception and family planning to reduce the birth rate. However, the young population will mean that the population continues to grow because of population momentum.
Problems that the young population might cause are greater calls for political and social freedom and demands for better employment opportunities.
Iran's Frustrated Young - BBC article
Youth Shapes Iran's economy - BBC article
Children of Iranian Revolution Need Change - Telegraph article
Causes of an Ageing Population
Problems of an Ageing Population
Solutions to an Ageing Population
Advantages of Ageing Population
Ageing populations and fewer workers strain pensions - BBC article
Dementia cost to top 1% of GDP - BBC article
The end of Retirement - The Economist Article
Cost of ageing population needs recalculating - BBC article
Japan's ageing population still contributes - BBC article
India passes law to punish children who abandon elderly parents - AFP artcile
Thousands strike in France over pension reforms - CNN article
Half a million people age over 100 by 2066 - Huffington Post
Government says state pension age is rising too slowly - BBC article
UN warns over impact of rapidly ageing populations - BBC article
Charities warn government over ageing population - BBC article
Centenarians increase five-fold over 30 years, ONS says - BBC article
Japan's Ageing Population
Japan has an ageing population because the birth rates have fallen and it has one of the world's highest life expectancy's. In fact the islands of Okinawa off Japan's south coast have the highest life expectancy and the greatest percentage of centenarians in the world.
Japan has the highest proportion of old dependents (about 23%) and the lowest proportion of young dependents (about 13%) in the world. It has a total fertility rate of only 1.25. This is well below the replacement rate of 2.1.
Even though the Japanese are working longer, it may have to look outside its borders to prevent future population decline and economic decline. Japan is traditionally a very insular country so allowing large scale immigration would involve huge social and cultural changes.
Centenarian: Someone over the age of 100.
Fabric of Long Life - USA Today
Fears over Japans ageing population - BBC article
Japan: A country in Crisis? - Independent article
Solving Japan's age old problem - Guardian article
More than 40,000 Japanese aged over 100 - Windsor Star article
Japan's Population To shrink by one third by 2060 - BBC article
What possible solution to an ageing population is to increase the retirement age and employ elderly people. There are advantages and disadvantages to hiring elderly workers.
Advantages of Elderly Workers
Disadvantages of Elderly Workers
Dependents (old and young) tend to be cared for very differently in rich (MEDC) and poor (LEDC) countries. The document below gives examples of some of the different ways that they are cared for.
Overpopulation, Underpopulation and Optimum Population
A country with a high dependency ratio or a declining population could be considered to be either overpopulated or underpopulated. This is because the resources of the country and the population of the country do not match. Resources of a country may include:
Overpopulation: When the population is greater than the resources available in the country e.g. Bangladesh
Underpopulation: When the population is not big enough to fully exploit the economic potential of a country e.g. Canada and Australia
Optimum Population: When the population and resources are perfectly matched. In reality this never really happens.
We will be looking at the relationship between resources and population a little bit later in the course: Patterns of resource consumption
However, it is important to remember that a country's optimum population can be constantly changing. This might be because of the discovery of new resources, or the loss of existing resources, or the discovery and use of new technology e.g. desalination.
Population Policies
Pro-natalist policy: A policy that tries to increase birth rates and total fertility rate. You can not force people to have children, so you have to offer incentives e.g. free education.
Countries may introduce a pro-natalist policy because:
You can not force people to have children, so pro-natalist policies normally work by offering incentives. Incentives may include:
In some countries like Singapore the problem is that people are concentrating on their education and careers and getting married later and therefore have less time to have children. To overcome this problem the Singapore government is hosting speed dating nights, singles holidays, etc. to try and match make and encourage earlier marriage.
However, even with financial incentives, having a child is not something to make money from. In the UK is has been estimated that the cost of rearing of one child is 200,000 pounds. Therefore the aim of pro-natalist policies is to encourage couples who want children, but might possibly be delaying having them because they can't quite afford it.
Singapore's Pro-natalist Policy
Singapore is a developed country in SE Asia with a population of about 5 million people. For many years the Singaporean government has believed that Singapore is underpopulated and has tried to increase its population. Singapore has one of the lowest total fertility rates in the world, standing at 1.1, which is well below the replacement rate of 2.1. Already 36% of the Singapore population is made up of foreign nationals and in some sectors like industry, 80% of the workers are foreign.
To overcome worker shortages, the Singapore government has encouraged immigration, but it is also trying to increase the population through raising birth rates. The government is doing this in a number of ways. It has increased maternity leave by 50% to 12 weeks and it will cover the cost of maternity leave (the cost to the parents employers) for the first four babies. The Singapore government is also increasing child benefits paid to families. The government will pay money into a special bank account of up to nearly $1000 for six years. The Singapore government has also sponsored dating organisations to encourage people to get married earlier and start having children.
If Singapore's policies are not successful it will become increasingly dependent on foreign workers, gradually see an increase in the dependency ratio and ultimately economic decline.
Singapore Aims to Lift Birth Rate - BBC article
Singapore's Couples Paid For babies - BBC article
Singapore Birth Rate Challenges - Asiaone News Article
Vladamir Putin Reveals Plan to boost Russia Birth Rate- BBC article
France Plans to Pay Cash For More Babies - Guardian article
Australia's birth rate at 25 year high - Reuters article
Lie Back and think of the Bank Balance - Guardian article
Cost of Raising Children Breaks 200,000 pounds - Guardian article
Anti-natalist policy: A policy that tries to reduce birth rates. This can be done through better education on family planning and better provision of contraception or a more rigid forced policy like China's (see below).
A country may introduce an anti-natalist policy if it is:
China's One Child Policy (anti-natalist policy)
China currently has the largest population in the world, standing at about 1.3 billion. China is the third largest country in the world, but only about 10% of its area is good for arable farming. Much of the west is covered in mountains and much of the north is desert.
China probably has the most famous population policy in the world. However, not everyone knows is that China actually had a pro-natalist policy after the end of World War II. During the war China was occupied by the Japanese. The Communist government never wanted this to happen again, so encouraged population growth to create a large army. This policy saw rapid population growth, but unfortunately the availability of resources was not growing at the same rate and in the early 1960's an estimated 20 million people died from famine. Because of the famine, in 1964 the government tried to promote birth control, but the birth rate still stood at 45 between 1966 and 1971. Because of the high birth rates the government promoted a new campaign 'Late, Sparse, Few'. However, the government didn't believe that this was having a significant enough effect and in 1979 introduced the one child policy.
Demographers estimated that China's optimum population was 700 million and the aim was to meet this figure by 2080. The policy was strictly enforced and there were punishments for people who did not follow the policy including fines, loss of jobs, removal of education and health rights for children and for women caught to be pregnant with a second child forced abortion and sterilisation.
At the same time as punishing offenders the government was also promoting the use of contraception and encouraging people to get married later. There are also some exceptions to the rule, families in rural areas were often allowed two children where people were needed to work on the land and ethnic groups were also allowed two children.
Successes:
Failures:
China's one child policy - success or failure? - BBC article
China considers relaxing one child policy - Guardian article
China Sticking With One Child Policy - NY Times article
China's rocketing elderly population prompts a rethink on pensions - Guardian Article
China reforms: One-child policy to be relaxed - BBC article
No siblings: A side-effect of China's one-child policy - BBC article