Vulnerability

Vulnerability: The susceptibility of a community to a hazard or to the impacts of a hazard event.

Risk: The probability of a hazard event event causing harmful consequences (death, injury, loss of property, damage to environment, etc.)

Populations vulnerability is often gauged using the hazard vulnerability formula. The formula is:

Disaster (D) = Hazard (H) X Vulnerability (V)
Capacity (C)

HAZARD (physical and human): This mean hazards that could potential or do hit a country or region.	VULNERABILITY: This means how at risk populations are to natural or human hazards.	CAPACITY - This means how able a country or region is able to react and recover to a natural hazard.
Physical Earthquakes Volcanoes Floods Hurricanes Landslides Tsunami Tornadoes Famine Drought Avalanches Human Nuclear accident Chemical leak	Population density Poverty Marginal land Building design Proximity to factories/industry Proximity to hazardous areas Hazard hotspots Defences Education level Accessibility and Communication Evacuation routes and practiced safety procedures Deforestation Drainage Prediction Hazard mapping Fertility of soil Relief of land Age, sex, health	Search teams Medical care Search equipment (sniffer dogs or heating seeking equipment) Helicopters and boats Communication links (mobile phones or satellite phones) Water and food Tents and blankets Wealth Aid

Above are some of the factors that can affect a populations vulnerability, but there are also more. Below is a brief explanation of some of these factors:

Education: Education is important in many ways. Firstly if you are educated you will probably have a good job and earn a good salary. This means that you can then live in a safer house in a safer location. Also if you are literate you can understand the risks posed by hazards and how to react to them. You are also more likely to have better communications and transport in order to hear about and escape from a possible hazard.

Building Design (electrics, plumbing, foundations, structure): If your house is built to latest earthquake-proof standards, then you are less vulnerable than someone living in an informal settlement or a house that has disobeyed guidance. If your house has proper electricity connections and proper plumbing you are less vulnerable to fires, electrocution, flooding and diseases.

China anger over shoddy schools - BBC article

Home Preparation: By preparing your home from hazards e.g. screwing pictures and furniture to the wall so they don't fall during earthquakes, covering windows during hurricanes or surrounding with sandbags during floods, then you are less vulnerable to the risk of hazards.

Building and Settlement Location: Houses that are built on flat land and secure bedrock are going to more secure and less vulnerable than houses built on steep hills and unstable rock. Houses built in coastal areas or on floodplains or near volcanoes are obviously going to be more at risk than ones built in areas that don't suffer from hazards. Settlements that are not accessible will be more vulnerable because people will not be able to escape hazards and people will not be able to help hazard victims.

Housing and Population Density: If people live close together there is a greater risk of hazards spreading e.g. fire can spread easily when houses are close together and disease can spread easily when people live close together. Where there are high densities of houses, there is a greater risk of debris falling on you during earthquakes.

Prediction, Alarms and Evacuation Procedures: Some hazards are easier to predict than others e.g. volcanoes, droughts, floods. However, some regions are also better at making predictions. Countries like the US have very sophisticated and well funded agencies like the USGS (US Geological Survey) and the NHC (National Hurricane Centre) which can make accurate predictions. Once predictions have been made, warnings or alarms are very important. For hazards with long onsets e.g. droughts then warning can be issued through newspapers, TV and the internet, but hazards with a short inset other warnings/alarms are necessary e.g. sirens. Once a hazard has been predicted it is important that citizens know how to react and where to go for safety e.g. high ground in case of tsunami, under a table for an earthquake. Populations that live in countries with good, prediction, alarms and warning systems are going to be less vulnerable that populations in countries without them.

Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System - BBC article

Defences and Shelters: Regions that have sophisticated defences like levees, sea walls and flood channels are going to protect populations and make them less vulnerable. Also areas with flood shelters, avalanche shelters or even nuclear shelters are going to protect their populations and make them less vulnerable.

Thames Flood Barrier to hold to 2070 - BBC article

Transport and Communication: Countries with good reliable communication e.g. mobile phone network, broadband connection are going to be better able to inform and warn citizens making them less vulnerable. Also countries with good transport roads, rail, etc. will allow citizens to escape potential hazards making them less vulnerable.

Search Teams and Rescue Equipment: Countries who have large numbers of trained search teams who regularly practice drills are going to be better able to protect their populations and make them less vulnerable. Also search teams that have advanced equipment or technology can help make populations less vulnerable. Equipment might range from sniffer dogs, to heat seeking equipment to GPS to helicopters.

Wokingham Search and Rescue Team Get Grant - BBC article

Medical Care and Emergency Supplies: Countries with advanced medical care and good medical supplies will be able to help and protect victims of hazards or even prevent them from suffering from potential hazards. For example hospital screening and inoculations can stop people from being victims of disease outbreaks.

India close to wiping out Polio - BBC article

Economic Status and/or Level of Development: Richer countries and richer individuals are generally better to prepare and react to hazards making them or their populations less vulnerable.

Insurance: If communities or individuals are insured it allows them to rebuild and become less vulnerable to secondary hazards or future hazards. If people are not insured they might not be able to rebuild their house and are therefore exposed to secondary hazards like disease and exposure. They might also be forced to build informal settlements which are vulnerable to other hazards like flooding, hurricanes and landslides.

Sex, age and health: Young and old people are often more vulnerable to hazards because they are unable to escape or are more susceptible to disease/famine. Also young, old and the ill will find it hard to evacuate from hazards. In the Indian Ocean tsunami more women than men died. One reason is that many men were at sea fishing and avoided the tsunami, but on land many women were working indoors and had no warning or were not physically quick enough to run away.

Four times as many women died in tsunami - Guardian article

Aid: Countries that receive aid or accept aid are better able to cope with the after effects of a hazard. For example Turkey has recently accepted foreign help which should mean more people are rescued from collapsed buildings and treated for their injuries or protected from secondary hazards.

Turkey Earthquake; Government will accept foreign aid - BBC article

Number, Type and Regularity of Hazards: Countries or regions that suffer from multiple hazards e.g. El Salvador, Philippines, Indonesia and Japan potentially suffer from earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis, hurricanes, floods and landslides are going to be more vulnerable than countries like the UK that suffer from very few major hazards.

Hazard Hotspots

Summary Table

	Human Factors	Physical Factors
Increasing Risk and Vulnerability	Overcrowding and high housing/population density e.g. Mexico City Areas with large amounts of informal housing e.g. Guatemala City Areas that have been deforested e.g. large parts of Central America, the Philippines and Indonesia Populations that live in remote inaccessible areas e.g. Himalayas Countries with poor transport and communications e.g. Afghanistan Poor or heavily indebted countries that rely on international aid e.g. Ethiopia Countries with poor medical care e.g. Haiti	Hazard hotspots e.g. El Salvador and the Philippines Low coastal countries e.g. Bangladesh Countries with large rivers e.g. the Yangtse and Yellow Rivers in China Areas in between the tropics that suffer from hurricanes e.g. the Caribbean Areas that lie in tectonically active areas e.g. Chile Arid areas that may suffer from drought e.g. the Sahel
Decreasing Risk and Vulnerability	Areas that have been hazard mapped so populations live in safer areas e.g. Wellington in New Zealand. Areas that have early warning systems e.g. Pacific countries benefit from the tsunami early warning system Areas with trained search and rescue teams and good medical care e.g. Japan Countries with earthquake proof building design e.g. US Countries that have educated populations in hazard management e.g. Japan Countries that have developed sea defences and shelters e.g. the UK	Areas that have low frequency of hazards e.g. the UK Areas that only suffer from relatively low magnitude hazards e.g. Europe Areas that have a steady climate (not too hot, too cold, too wet or too dry) Areas that only suffer from one major hazards

The Increasing Risk of Natural Hazards

The frequency and magnitude of hazards are both increasing. If the frequency and magnitude of hazards are increasing, then also people's vulnerability is increasing. Below are some factors which are increasing the frequency and magnitude of hazards.

Factor	Why is it happening?	Affect on magnitude and frequency of hazards
Desertification	Drought (less rainfall) Overpopulation Overgrazing and overcultivation Rising temperatures Deforestation Polluted or infertile soil	Increase in frequency and magnitude of famines because of crop failure, reduced yields and livestock deaths. Areas around the Sahel will be particularly badly affected. Increase in the frequency of sandstorms because topsoil is less stable
War	Political, tribal and religious conflicts Shortage of resources (Malthus prediction)	Increase in famine as workers are taken away from the land to fight. Also money is diverted to war effort and farmland maybe damaged by mines, chemicals ,etc. Houses may be damaged making them more vulnerable to hazards like earthquakes and hurricanes
Poverty	Rising populations, especially in LEDCs No welfare state e.g. unemployment payments in LEDCs Government debt and corruption Global recession	People are forced to live on marginal land making them more vulnerable to landslides, earthquakes, flooding ,etc. People are not able to build secure solid houses and maybe forced to live in informal settlements making populations more vulnerable to disease, earthquakes, etc. Poor education will mean people are unaware of hazards or how to protect from hazards. This may increase risk of disease, famine, but also vulnerability to earthquakes, hurricanes, etc.
Drought	Rising temperatures and increased evaporation rates Uncontrolled irrigation e.g. Aral Sea	Increased risk of crop failure and livestock deaths and therefore famines Increased frequency of sandstorms Loss of vegetation, making flash floods and landslides more likely
Deforestation	Countries selling timber Areas being cleared for biofuels e.g. palm oil in Borneo Areas cleared for farms, roads and urban growth HEP schemes and mining	Increased risk of landslides making landslides more likely because of unstable ground Increased risk of flash floods because of less interception Less photosynthesis so an increase in the amount of harmful greenhouse gases contributing to the greenhouse effect and global warming (sea level rises and coastal flooding) Increase in affects of tsunamis, hurricanes because there is no vegetation to act as windbreak or absorb energy.
Overcrowding	Rising populations (high birth rates in LEDCs and declining death rates and growing life expectancy) Shortage of housing, or at least affordable housing Rural-urban migration, especially in LEDCs Refugees from natural hazards, conflicts, etc.	Increase in people living on marginal land and living in informal settlements, increasing peoples exposure and risk to hurricanes, landslides, earthquakes, disease, etc. Increased urbanisation also increases risk of flooding because of deforestation and the creation of impermeable surfaces.
Increasing Temperatures	Greenhouse effect causing a rise in the earth's temperatures (global warming). Although a natural phenomenon, humans are producing an increasing amount of greenhouse gases.	Can cause the increase in the amounts of droughts and famines Increase in the frequency and magnitude of tropical storms Increase in the likelihood of avalanches Increase in the amount of landslides and flash floods because of more convectional rainfall and vegetation loss Rising sea levels can increase the amount of coastal flooding Rising temperatures can increase the spread of diseases, especially mosquito borne diseases like malaria and dengue An increase in the amount of wildfires as the ground becomes drier Possible increase in the risk of sandstorms caused by desertification

Disaster Risk Increasing, Says UN - BBC article

Natural Disasters on the Rise - BBC article