When people know that they live in a hazardous area, they have to make choices to how they are going to adapt to the hazard. They could do nothing and accept the potential consequences, they could decide to move out of the area and find somewhere safer to live, or they could adapt (or adjust) to living in the hazardous areas. In this section the focus will be on how people have adjusted to potential hazards
Before deciding on the possible adjustment, it is necessary to do dome kind of risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis.
Cost-benefits analysis
Before you starting making adjustments to a hazard it is probably worth carrying out some kind of cost benefit analysis. Cost benefit analysis might be done by an individual or a government.
Individual: An individual should look at the benefit of their house and where they live e.g. how much is their house worth, how much is their land worth and is their income dependent upon their location. They should then look at the costs of defending their property and land. If the benefit of their location is greater than the cost of defending then they should probably stay. When doing this calculation, people should take into account the cost of moving to a new location.
Government: When governments are deciding whether to protect a settlement, industrial zone or area of land, they will also look at the potential costs and benefits. For a town they will look at the value of the land and property as well as the number of jobs, its contribution to the national economy and taxes paid. They will then look at the costs of protecting the town. Again if the benefits are greater than the costs then they should defend.
Risk Assessment
Even if you know that you live in a hazardous you need to do an assessment to find out what the likelihood of hazard event happening is, how strong it is likely to be and what its likely impacts are. If you are only at risk from a small flood event, there is no point spending millions of dollars to build 5 metre high levees. Once you know the likely frequency and magnitude of the hazard you can then plan to how you are going to adjust.
As mentioned earlier in the topic, people and governments do not always get risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis correct. The government surrounding the Indian Ocean decided that the risk posed by a potential tsunami was not great enough to spend millions of dollars building an early warning system. The result was over 200,000 people dieing in the Boxing Day (December 26th) 2004 tsunami.
Once a decision to adjust has been made, then residents, communities and countries have to decide how to adjust. The choices include:
Stop hazard - maybe possible for human hazards (better safety and regulations), but much harder for natural hazards, except maybe drought
Modify the impacts of the hazard e.g. defences or site selection (away from fault lines, on stable bedrock, on gentle gradient - flood barriers, levees, lava diversion channels)
Reduce potential losses e.g. prepare and warn populations (evacuation drills, train search teams, evacuation route, warning alarms)
Spread the cost of potential losses e.g. emergency aid, public funds, National Guard, government compensation
Below are three more detailed examples of modifying the impacts i.e. hazard mapping and removing people from vulnerable areas and two of managing losses i.e. insurance and aid.
Hazard Mapping (Land use planning or zoning)
Hazard maps are created by calculating the vulnerability of different areas to natural hazards. Hazard maps are often made to calculate populations vulnerability to hazards like earthquakes, hurricanes, volcanoes and floods. Once potential hazards are known then appropriate adjustments can be taken. Adjustments may include:
Creating zones where building is not permitted because it is too dangerous
Creating zones where only low value uses are permitted e.g. farming
Protecting areas that are vulnerable to hazards with the use of defences
Evacuating vulnerable areas (and possibly allowing managed retreat in coastal areas)
Rebuilding vulnerable areas to new building standards
When creating a hazard map a number of variables will be considered. For example scientists creating an earthquake hazard map will look at the following:
Proximity to plate boundary or known fault
Seismic history (frequency and magnitude)
Geology (bedrock is much more stable than alluvial deposits which are vulnerable to liquefaction)
Gradient (flatter ground is generally more stable than steep land)
Possible secondary hazards (proximity to coast for things like tsunami, but also hills for landslides (forested/deforested))
Although hazard maps allow people and governments to prepare for hazards and enforcing zoning and planning regulations, it might also create difficulties for other people. For example in the UK the Environment Agency has just produced a flood risk map. This has helped communities prepare defences, but it has also meant that some people have seen the value of their property reduce and prevented them from getting insurance.
Insurance is the act of insuring (protecting) property, people, businesses, etc. against the risk of something happening e.g. a person dieing or being injured, or property being flooded or burnt down. In order to insure something it is necessary to pay a premium appropriate to the likelihood of something happening e.g. a 80 year old person is likely to die fairly soon, so any premium will be high, but the likelihood of a 25 year old dieing in the near future is much less so the insurance premium will be much less. Normally insurance policies are taken out with private companies, but if the risk of insuring is too high, then private companies may refuse insurance. In these circumstances governments will sometimes offer insurance. For example the New Zealand government has a national insurance policy protecting all houses in New Zealand against earthquake damage. There are a number of advantages and disadvantages to insurance including:
Advantages
People can rebuild if homes and/or property are damaged by hazards
People can receive money for lost income if their job or business is impacted by a hazard
Disadvantages
Not everyone can afford insurance
Insurance is offered in all areas in all countries
Insurance may be denied if the risk is too great
People maybe less willing to spend money on protection, if they know insurance will pay for repairs.
Aid
Aid maybe used as an adjustment before potential hazards strike or after hazards strike. Aid before hazards strike will take the form of development aid and may include:
The building of wells to reduce drought and disease
The improvement of irrigation and the introduction of GM crops to reduce famine
The building of dams to reduce the risk of flooding and droughts
The building of roads and mobile networks to improve transport and communication throughout a country
The building of schools to improve education about hazards
The building of hospitals to reduce hazards like disease and treat people injured in hazards
Aid given after a hazard or during a hazard is more emergency aid. Emergency aid may include:
The sending of rescue teams to search for victims
The provision of medicine or doctors to help injured
The provision of food and clean water
The provision of tents and blankets, etc.
Aid may also be given at a later date to help rebuild after a disaster e.g. rebuilding homes, roads, schools, hospitals and electricity supply.
Responses to the risk of hazard events
When people know that they live in a hazardous area, they have to make choices to how they are going to adapt to the hazard. They could do nothing and accept the potential consequences, they could decide to move out of the area and find somewhere safer to live, or they could adapt (or adjust) to living in the hazardous areas. In this section the focus will be on how people have adjusted to potential hazards
Before deciding on the possible adjustment, it is necessary to do dome kind of risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis.
Cost-benefits analysis
Before you starting making adjustments to a hazard it is probably worth carrying out some kind of cost benefit analysis. Cost benefit analysis might be done by an individual or a government.
Individual: An individual should look at the benefit of their house and where they live e.g. how much is their house worth, how much is their land worth and is their income dependent upon their location. They should then look at the costs of defending their property and land. If the benefit of their location is greater than the cost of defending then they should probably stay. When doing this calculation, people should take into account the cost of moving to a new location.
Government: When governments are deciding whether to protect a settlement, industrial zone or area of land, they will also look at the potential costs and benefits. For a town they will look at the value of the land and property as well as the number of jobs, its contribution to the national economy and taxes paid. They will then look at the costs of protecting the town. Again if the benefits are greater than the costs then they should defend.
Risk Assessment
Even if you know that you live in a hazardous you need to do an assessment to find out what the likelihood of hazard event happening is, how strong it is likely to be and what its likely impacts are. If you are only at risk from a small flood event, there is no point spending millions of dollars to build 5 metre high levees. Once you know the likely frequency and magnitude of the hazard you can then plan to how you are going to adjust.
Once a decision to adjust has been made, then residents, communities and countries have to decide how to adjust. The choices include:
Below are some real examples of adjustments
Earthquake
Volcano
Drought
Hurricane
Stop Hazard
Water Saving Advice - Australian Government
Modify the impacts of the hazard
Prepare and warn population
The Californian Shakeout
Manage losses
Below are three more detailed examples of modifying the impacts i.e. hazard mapping and removing people from vulnerable areas and two of managing losses i.e. insurance and aid.
Hazard Mapping (Land use planning or zoning)
Hazard maps are created by calculating the vulnerability of different areas to natural hazards. Hazard maps are often made to calculate populations vulnerability to hazards like earthquakes, hurricanes, volcanoes and floods. Once potential hazards are known then appropriate adjustments can be taken. Adjustments may include:
When creating a hazard map a number of variables will be considered. For example scientists creating an earthquake hazard map will look at the following:
Although hazard maps allow people and governments to prepare for hazards and enforcing zoning and planning regulations, it might also create difficulties for other people. For example in the UK the Environment Agency has just produced a flood risk map. This has helped communities prepare defences, but it has also meant that some people have seen the value of their property reduce and prevented them from getting insurance.
UK Environment Agency - Flood Risk Map
Flood map and rising insurance premiums - This is Money Article
Seismic Hazard Maps - USGS
Insurance
Insurance is the act of insuring (protecting) property, people, businesses, etc. against the risk of something happening e.g. a person dieing or being injured, or property being flooded or burnt down. In order to insure something it is necessary to pay a premium appropriate to the likelihood of something happening e.g. a 80 year old person is likely to die fairly soon, so any premium will be high, but the likelihood of a 25 year old dieing in the near future is much less so the insurance premium will be much less. Normally insurance policies are taken out with private companies, but if the risk of insuring is too high, then private companies may refuse insurance. In these circumstances governments will sometimes offer insurance. For example the New Zealand government has a national insurance policy protecting all houses in New Zealand against earthquake damage. There are a number of advantages and disadvantages to insurance including:
Advantages
Disadvantages
Aid
Aid maybe used as an adjustment before potential hazards strike or after hazards strike. Aid before hazards strike will take the form of development aid and may include:
Aid given after a hazard or during a hazard is more emergency aid. Emergency aid may include:
Aid may also be given at a later date to help rebuild after a disaster e.g. rebuilding homes, roads, schools, hospitals and electricity supply.
For general advantages and disadvantages of aid go to: Reducing disparities
UK provides aid to help fight cholera in Haiti - BBC article